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null When Will Spain Overcome the Coronavirus Crisis? The Arcano Model

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When Will Spain Overcome the Coronavirus Crisis? The Arcano Model
03 Apr 2020
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CATEGORIES: AER Global AER España Spain Coronavirus
ANALYSTS:
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Ignacio de la Torre Rico
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Leopoldo Torralba de la Torre
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Diego Mejía Torralba
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Rafael Rico Mejía
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Álvaro Cabo Cabo
Arcano Economic Research has developed a sophisticated predictive model of how the coronavirus epidemic may unfold in Spai, based on evidence from the official figures released in Spain and has been validated by experts in the fields of epidemiology and statistics.  The model reflects: a) the evolution of new cases, marking the peaks that help us anticipate when the disease comes control, b) the evolution of active cases (net of recoveries and deaths), which is key to understanding the economic evolution going forward and c) demand versus ICU capacity, in order to analyse at what point the capacity of the healthcare system returns below 100%.
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