Amidst the growing and widespread perception that the Spanish economy is deteriorating, we have run a thorough analysis of consumption, which is the main driver of GDP growth. After two consecutive revisions by INE, in the second quarter of 2019 the rate of household spending was changed from +1.7% to just +0.6%... merely due to statistical adjustments. Since consumption represents 55% of Spanish GDP, growth above or below expectations may prompt contra-consensus movements in GDP. The key is not in the present evolution of consumption, but in its performance over the coming quarters. A combined analysis of leading indicators, growth drivers and their sustainability, and INE’s revisions is no easy task, and interpreting future trend shifts even more difficult. However, after identifying some statistical connections which we believe shed light on the issue. As such, in this note we explain in detail our contra-consensus prediction that consumption, will not only not falter, but actually accelerate in the second half of the year.
El análisis combinado de indicadores adelantados, catalizadores sostenibles, tasas de ahorro familiares y datos revisados del INE, se antoja complejo y de muy difícil interpretación para estimar qué podemos esperar de su evolución en un futuro próximo.
¿Cómo se va a comportar el consumo en los próximos trimestres? ¿Por qué consideramos que el consumo, a diferencia de la creencia general, no solo va a flojear, sino que incluiso se va a acelerar en el segundo semestre del año?