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null New COVID-19 Flare-ups in Autumn?Revised Arcano Projections Situate us Against the Consensus

Report
New COVID-19 Flare-ups in Autumn? Revised Arcano Projections Situate us Against the Consensus
21 May 2020
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Clock 45 mins.
CATEGORIES: AER Premium Spain Macro Spain Coronavirus
ANALYSTS:
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Leopoldo Torralba
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Ignacio de la Torre
In this report we readjust our medical scenario from autumn onward to account for the most likely evolution of the pandemic, based on a study carried out by US academics looking at the past 300 years of pandemics, and then match this to our study of the current situation in Spain (estimated percentage of asymptomatic cases, capacity to execute really effective preventive measures throughout the de-escalation process...). Under these scenarios of outbreaks in autumn of variable intensity, we have revised our economic projections for Spain in 2020 and 2021, linking the medical scenario forecast after the summer with the potentially associated economic effects, both on supply and demand. Thus, we run assumptions about the potential pace of recovery of normality in 2020 and 2021, breaking down monthly GDPs. Our projections draw from our expenditure approach analysis (households, capital goods, external sector...), a sectoral analysis of household expenditure, and partly on an analysis of the external sector (distinguishing between tourism, balance of goods, energy, etc.). In short, our new projections put us once again against the consensus, and this report explains in detail why.
dot Why do we believe that there is value in tying our predictions to the potential medical scenarios?
dot Why is Spain more vulnerable than its peers?
dot What is our base scenario for the economy?
dot And our GDP projections for 2020 and 2021?

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