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How to Analyse Coronavirus: The Epidemic
09 Mar 2020
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Clock 45 mins.
CATEGORIES: AER Premium AER Personal Spain US Europe China Coronavirus
Ignacio de la Torre
Leopoldo Torralba
The novel coronavirus is spreading so fast globally that we cannot rule out it is eventually considered a pandemic. This report shows case numbers in both linear and logarithmic scales, explaining how and why one should analyse the figures. It also sheds light on the significance of lethality ratios, as well as the number of infections per million inhabitants in a country, and explains how the epidemic propagates, how to reduce its expansion, and at which point it can be said that the epidemic is contained, something that usually brings with it GDP improvements. Lastly, it makes estimations of the virus’s penetration in several countries, and ponders adjustments and calculations of the lethality rate to obtain objective figures of how many people are truly at risk.