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null Could an Interest Rate Hike Trigger an Impending Recession in the US?

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Could an Interest Rate Hike Trigger an Impending Recession in the US?
16 Feb 2022
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Clock 15 mins.
CATEGORIES: AER Global Global US Macro Global Monetary Policy
ANALYSTS:
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Leopoldo Torralba
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Ignacio de la Torre
In the environment of uncertainty and volatility which has been the norm for the past two years, an essential variable has reappeared which must be closely monitored in order to optimise transcendental decisions. When markets forecast abrupt and imminent interest rate hikes, especially in the US, it is essential to consider their potential impact on the growth of the US economy, which is vital for the world's growth.
dot Do recent interest rate hikes anticipate a recession? If so, will it be soon or later, and when?
dot What is the empirical evidence of the past 66 years?
dot What are the risks to our central scenario?
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