Economic & Market Update: Will Rising Trade Tensions Lead to Global Recession? is the document our Chief Economist, Ignacio de la Torre, used in the presentation delivered in Madrid before an audience of nearly 100 people, mainly executives of large companies and important investors. Over the hour, he updated the most significant aspects of the global and Spanish macro context, including real estate.
The presentation sheds light on the current uncertainty associated with US-China tariff disputes, heavily leveraged countries, ailing US macroeconomics, excessive European exposure to exports, China's vulnerability and the expected performance of interest rates, business profits and markets. Having a reasoned insight into these issues is key in an environment where uncertainties affect decision making, and where monetary policy entails significant risks for markets.
In addition, the presentation delves into critical structural factors that must be monitored in the long run in order to make successful economic decisions. In particular, how demographics, technology and productivity can impact economic growth.