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null Spanish General Elections and the Most Likely Political Outcomes, Will They Derail the Economy?

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Spanish General Elections and the Most Likely Political Outcomes, Will They Derail the Economy?
24 Apr 2019
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Clock 40 mins.
CATEGORIES: AER Premium AER Personal Spain Macro Spain Politics
ANALYSTS:
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Ignacio Varela
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Ignacio de la Torre
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Leopoldo Torralba
On Sunday, April 28, Spain holds its general elections. There is a very high level of uncertainty among economic agents regarding the final outcome of the election, the potential governing coalitions formed thereafter, and the possible effects of the election on the economy at a moment when many are foreshadowing a sharp slowdown. Because of the significance of the event, and to analyse and respond to the many previously mentioned uncertainties, we have decided to publish this report. Renowned political analyst, campaign adviser and media correspondent Ignacio Varela has contributed to our report’s analysis of the political situation and also held a fascinating conference on the subject for some of our Premium clients. The political section describes the current situation of each party and its electoral support, and explains the role of the Spanish election system in allocating seats in Congress and in the Senate and why its impact is especially relevant in these elections. It also reviews the most recent polls and the evolution of voting tendencies as well as the issue of coalitions and the different potential post electoral scenarios. The economic section analyses why we believe that the Spanish economy is poised to weather international weakness, the "new tail winds", as well as main existing risks. It also reviews our outlook for the Spanish economic and real estate cycles, and ponders the impact of politics on the economy against the current backdrop.

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