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May the Indian Variant Mean a Turning Point in the Pandemic?
29 Apr 2021
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Clock 5 mins.
CATEGORIES: AER Premium AER Personal Emerging Countries Coronavirus
ANALYSTS:
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Pedro Larrasquitu
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Ignacio De la Torre
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Leopoldo Torralba
The public health crisis in India has worsened since late March with an exponential surge in cases, hospital admissions and deaths. The emergence of a new variant, B.1.617, has set off alarm bells and some countries, like Spain, have forced travellers from the South Asian country to quarantine, others, like the US, have asked their citizens to leave India immediately. In this short report, we analyse the situation in India to infer what the main implications may be for the rest of the world and, as such, on the timeline for social and economic normalcy.
dot How dangerous is the Indian variant? Could it become dominant over the rest?
dot Are there any other factors that help explain the increase in cases?
dot Could it alter the timeline for achieving herd immunity in Europe and the US?

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