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How Dangerous Are the New Coronavirus Outbreaks in Spain? An Update

10 mins.
30 JULY, 2020
Ignacio de la Torre de la Torre
Leopoldo Torralba Torralba
Álvaro Cabo Cabo
Coronavirus Spain AER España AER Global
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In recent weeks, outbreaks of varied intensity have surged across Spain, which are specially virulent in Aragon, Catalonia and Navarre. The question that now arises is: to what extent are these outbreaks significant and how can they be quantified? As we have stated since the onset of the crisis, having deep understanding of the medical situation is key to correctly anticipate economic performance, and thereby essential for decision-making. Arcano Economic Research was among the first to sensibly revise downwards its macro outlook and to warn that there would likely be new outbreaks, especially in autumn. Thus, it is critical to understand the intensity of these current outbreaks, as they may inform estimates for GDP in the second half of 2020.
What is the situation in Spain both at the aggregate level and by autonomous community?
What are the flare-ups and their real intensity, based on meaningful data and medical ratios?
What is the actual severity of recent outbreaks in Spain, within the context of Europe and the global pandemic?

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