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Back Impact of Spain's First Left-Wing Coalition Government on the Economy


Impact of Spain's First Left-Wing Coalition Government on the Economy

45 mins.
22 NOVEMBER, 2019
Leopoldo Torralba Torralba
Ignacio de la Torre de la Torre
Macro Spain Politics Spain AER España AER Global AER Personal
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This comprehensive report depicts the political situation and the potential scenarios that are opening up, after the November election in Spain, but also the actual impacts they could have on the economy, including the PSOE/UP government scenario with direct or indirect support from Catalan separatist via ERC (pro-independence left). The report analyses the measures that PSOE and UP will be able to actually implement (campaign promises are one thing, and delivery, another) in key areas such as labour reform, minimum wage or the actual extent of future tax increases, where reality clashes with expectations. It deals also with the risks associated with political-related uncertainty and their mitigation mechanisms, with similar past experiences in neighbouring countries and their impact on markets and economies, as well as with the policy measures proposed at sectoral level. With these issues in mind, we draw conclusions about the foreseeable evolution of the Spanish economy, financial threats (fiscal deficit) and the real estate sector, pointing out upside and downside risks to our central scenario.

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