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Is Spain’s Real Estate Cycle over or Is This a Mere Bump in the Road?

90 mins.
15 OCTOBER, 2019
Ignacio de la Torre de la Torre
Leopoldo Torralba Torralba
Macro Spain Spain AER España AER Global
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In times of unrest, economic analysis must look beyond common cyclical indicators and examine core fundamentals. Before the devastating crisis of 2008, mortgage affordability ratios close to 50% were not a matter of concern, but nowadays affordability of barely 33% sets off alarms. In our view, this makes no sense. We believe that through the next several quarters, the aforementioned strong core fundamentals will outweigh intangible factors such as uncertainty. In fact, it is when there is widespread “negative noise”, combined with strong underlying fundamentals that the best opportunities in terms of risk-reward usually arise. This chartbook features a rigorous and structured analysis of the fundamentals of the Spanish residential real estate sector, with the most significant and up-to-date data supporting our theses regarding the sector’s most likely movements for the coming quarters and years. In it, we conclude whether or not the increasingly widespread notion that we are approaching the end of the real estate cycle is justified. Our analysis considers demand and supply-side drivers, price evolution, the rental market, the downside risk to our forecasts, a geographical breakdown and structural predictions about future new home starts.

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