2021 will likely be one of the most complex years for economic forecasting for many decades to come. There are many relevant unanswered questions, from the evolution of the medical situation –cases, restrictions, vaccines and immunisation – to that of the economy – non-linear, geographical and sectoral asymmetric growth, impacts of public aid and complex effects on inflation and interest rates –. Uncertainty is also significant in key areas such as the property sector and financial markets (including stock exchanges and currencies, but also non-conventional assets).
This chartbook features our predictions for the abovementioned variables facing 2021. It includes ten relevant forecasts, some of which diverge from the mainstream economic consensus, in an attempt to gain an insight into the current widespread confusion. It answers, among others, the following questions: