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Back On the Slowdown in Spanish Growth


On the Slowdown in Spanish Growth

25 mins.
27 AUGUST, 2019
Leopoldo Torralba Torralba
Ignacio de la Torre de la Torre
Macro Spain Spain AER España AER Global
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Spain’s second quarter GDP figure surprised slightly to the downside (0.5% vs an expected 0.6%). Negative global data has caused some media outlets to sound the alarm on the Spanish economy, but are they drawing the right conclusion? In this report, we make a detailed analysis of all the relevant data published during the past few months, to conclude whether the underlying trend is positive or negative, and to determine the probable evolution of the Spanish economy in the next few quarters. Still, we consider it much more important to thoroughly understand the risks associated with growth, than to predict GDP growth to the nearest decimal. In the next few days, we will publish another report explaining these risks, emphasizing the probability of a recession in Spain, which some outlets are already heralding.

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