The Chinese residential market is the largest asset class in the world with its value exceeds that of the U.S. equities, bonds or real estate. However, after 20 years of growth, the trend broke. The Chinese real estate bubble began to burst at the end of 2021.
Since then, and after a more than remarkable correction, the consensus is starting to agree be that "the worst is behind us". At Arcano Research we disagree.
In our opinion, the real estate situation in China has remarkable parallels with the Spanish bubble of 2007. For anyone interested in visualizing what lies ahead for China in the years to come, there is nothing better than understanding what happened in Spain between 2007 and 2013 and glimpsing the consequences in terms of growth, potential financial contagion and commodity trends.
This is the first in a series of three reports that we will publish on our view of China and whose conclusion, once again, departs from the consensus: it will be very difficult for China to surpass the United States in terms of economic growth.