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Russia Invades Ukraine: Managing Risks?

20 mins.
24 FEBRUARY, 2022
análisis macroeconómico
Ignacio De la Torre
Leopoldo Torralba
Macro Global Global AER Global AER Personal
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While the uncertainty associated with the pandemic, accelerating inflation and the change in the interest rate cycle was already high, the conflict in Ukraine has only added fuel to the fire. In this chartbook we analyse potential scenarios, concluding what would be today's best risk management strategy. To reach that conclusion, we indicate the possible domino effects of each alternative from various angles, the probabilities of occurrence of each case and the foreseeable impacts on key parameters such as growth, energy and headline inflation, and interest rates.
What are the main possible scenarios and their consequences following Russian invasion of Ukraine?
What may be the impact on growth and inflation?
What about interest rates?
What is the West's expected reaction?

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