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Sixteen Forecasts for 2019

40 mins.
01 APRIL, 2021
Ignacio de la Torre null
Leopoldo Torralba null
Joaquín Rivera null
Macro Spain Macro Global Global AER Global
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We economists are said to be the only lucky ones who get paid twice, the first time for being wrong, and the second one for explaining why we were wrong. This kind of saying may be the reason why economists prefer not to make risky predictions. Challenging these sorts of expressions, Arcano Economic Research is characterised by its bold and independent forecasts, which are right on most occasions, but wrong sometimes. In 2018, we made 23 predictions, 19 of which succeeded, and four, failed (please refer to our December report ""Our Forecasts for 2018. What Happened in the End?""). In our report “Sixteen Forecasts for 2019”, we dare to anticipate 13 international events related to the macroeconomic context, impact of the relevant changes prompted by new monetary policies, performance of the dollar against the euro, markets and technology; and three more linked to Spain, including the real estate sector and political uncertainties. In 2019, it will be especially important to make the right decisions as we are stepping into a period of great economic, stock market and political uncertainties, both local and international. Against this backdrop, the consequences of making mistakes (or not) are more significant, as is the opportunity to distinguish oneself from one's competitors.

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