Amid the strong global economic deceleration (global growth rate of 2.9% vs the historical average of 3.7%, with Germany probably heading towards a technical recession), compounded by some negative economic data in Spain over the summer and early fall – poor employment reading for the third quarter as per the Active Population Survey – many expected the economy to slow down further instead of accelerating slightly. How did this happen?
In our opinion, this paradoxical situation may be explained, first, by dismantling myths about the Spanish economy. Second, by focusing on the actual numbers, which more often than not paint a different picture than the media ‘noise’: the performance of GDP has been partially fuelled by consumption, which accelerated as a result of wage increases. And third, by discerning between short- and medium-term factors (with their relevant sector breakdown). Our report exposes this three-fold analysis and supports it with an analysis of the associated economic risks to draw conclusions and make predictions and recommendations regarding growth in 2019 and 2020.