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Spanish Macroeconomics in 2023 and 2024

20 mins.
03 NOVEMBER, 2022
Leopoldo Torralba
Ignacio de la Torre
Macro Spain Monetary Policy Spain AER España AER Personal
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The ongoing volatility in the latest economic data and uncertainty regarding the future of multiple key drivers require close monitoring of the recent indicators and charts to understand what is really happening with the Spanish economy. As a matter of fact, the most recent quarterly GDP data factors in three cumulative months of information must be individualised by month in order to grasp changing trends in the shorter term. Likewise, after gaining an insight into September's new monthly enrolments to the Social Security scheme, they must be adjusted according to the Spanish Active Population Survey quarterly data. These are merely examples of the analytical complexity required to understand what is taking place in the Spanish economy in the short term. This brief chartbook analyses the most meaningful and updated indicators to understand the actual performance of the Spanish economy. Combined with our future outlook for local and global key drivers, we outline GDP and inflation forecasts for 2022, 2023 and 2024 (and their trend going forward) and mull over the reasons behind the expected uneven performance in each period.

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