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When and How Will the Coronavirus End in Spain?

12 mins.
23 MARCH, 2021
Ignacio de la Torre de la Torre
Leopoldo Torralba Torralba
Pedro Larrasquitu Larrasquitu
Coronavirus Spain AER Global AER Personal
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The COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented event in history in terms of the enormous quantity of information and misinformation. Week after week, we are flooded with breaking news and doomsday reports announcing changes in the trends of the pandemic. Arcano Economic Research has been closely monitoring objective national and international data on the public health crisis, weighing and analysing the incoming news in order to distinguish which developments may have a real and relevant impact and which may not. As such, we have made multiple correct predictions, counter to the economic consensus, throughout the year. In this report we break down how the vaccination schedule will support the normalisation of the public health (and therefore economic) crisis.
How many jabs are required really to reach herd immunity (adjusting for relevant criteria)?
Will there be enough doses available to meet the targets set? What percentage of supply could be undelivered but herd immunity reached anyway?
Have pharmaceutical companies beaten expectations throughout the pandemic?
When will vaccination start to have a tangible effect on the public health crisis?
Is herd immunity a necessary requirement for economic upturn? If not, when will the economy start to rebound?

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