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When Does the Spanish Economic Recovery Begin?

30 mins
11 MAY, 2021
análisis macroeconómico
Ignacio de la Torre
Leopoldo Torralba
Pedro Larrasquitu
Macro Spain Coronavirus Tourism sector Spain US Europe UK AER Global AER Personal
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For entrepreneurs, managers and investors it is crucial to determine the turning points in economic cycles. Having suffered the worst recession in the West since the 1930s, it is very important to gauge what these turning points are in the economic recovery in order to make the right investment decisions at the right time. Our analysis has focused on understanding the turning points in the pandemic and, from there, understanding how economic agents behave. This report:
Explains, by monitoring the countries that are phasing out COVID, how and when consumption is triggered and from there, gauges the origination of the turning points in economic growth.
Analyses how a consumer behaves when that pre-immunity tipping point is reached, what he spends his money on and how fast he spends it, all following consumer confidence guidelines.
From these two points, we analyze how and when the recovery of the Spanish economy takes place, following our immunization model (vaccinated and naturally immunized), according to the precedents detected in the UK, the US, and Israel, as well as the basis for such recovery, to conclude the risks to consensus estimates.
We reflect on sectoral behavior, especially the tourism sector, taking precedent from economies that are one to three months ahead of Europe in their vaccination calendars to draw implications for the Spanish tourist season.

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