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Why Spain Will Grow Above the Consensus Estimates

1 h 20 mins.
11 FEBRUARY, 2019
Ignacio de la Torre de la Torre
Leopoldo Torralba Torralba
Macro Spain Real Estate Politics Spain AER España AER Global AER Personal
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On Februray 2019, the European Commission revised Spanish GDP growth downwards for 2019 (+2.1%), even below the government's forecasts (+2.2%, in line with the consensus). Thus, a somewhat negative outlook is spreading, especially with the recent publication of a series of indicators with a clearly unfavourable tendency. However, is the outlook for the Spanish macro as dismal as depicted? Will negative forces be corrected or will they even deteriorate further in 2019? What are the key indicators that need to be closely followed? In "Why Spain Will Grow Above the Consensus Estimates", we once again take a stance contrarian to the consensus, and expose our predictions for the most important variables in 2019 (GDP, consumption, investment, foreign sector, inflation, deficit...). We believe that the performance of the Spanish real estate sector will have a special relevance in our stance against the consensus. In our opinion, there are new tailwinds that will affect future growth in Spain.

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