The conflict in Ukraine and the strong demand for goods the American consumer are having a decisive influence on inflation, monetary policy and future growth expectations, and the world may be on the verge of a major economic inflection point. To shed light on the matter and facilitate economic decision making, we are publishing a brief two-page report in which we analyse the essentials of the latest official second quarter Spanish GDP data and our position on future aggregate GDP growth in the euro zone and in Spain, highlighting the main risks and key mitigating factors.