Economic performance during the pandemic has continually surprised economists. An exogenous crisis (i.e. one caused by a pathogen) should not be dealt with in the same way as an endogenous crisis (one following a real estate crash, for example). Arcano Economic Research has been anticipating for some time now that the Spanish economy would begin a strong recovery from April onwards. We base our assumptions on the correlation between public health data and people’s propensity to consume. As of today, the available data points to our predictions being correct.