Over the last few weeks, we have witnessed the outbreak of war in Ukraine, significant energy and food shocks, inflation levels not seen in 40 years, and a substantial reassessment of the market’s interest rate expectations. All this is in the background of a ramped rise in covid cases due to the emergence of a new Omicron subvariant (BA2). These turbulent events require a rigorous analysis supported by data to understand their short and long-term implications.