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Could an Interest Rate Hike Trigger an Impending Recession in the US?

15 mins.
16 FEBRUARY, 2022
análisis macroeconómico
ANALYSTS:
Leopoldo Torralba
Ignacio de la Torre
CATEGORIES:
Macro Global Monetary Policy Global US AER Global
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In the environment of uncertainty and volatility which has been the norm for the past two years, an essential variable has reappeared which must be closely monitored in order to optimise transcendental decisions. When markets forecast abrupt and imminent interest rate hikes, especially in the US, it is essential to consider their potential impact on the growth of the US economy, which is vital for the world's growth.
Do recent interest rate hikes anticipate a recession? If so, will it be soon or later, and when?
What is the empirical evidence of the past 66 years?
What are the risks to our central scenario?

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