In a context of extreme economic volatility, it is evident that covid-19 is no longer the primary concern for economic agents. Even so, it is essential to monitor its progression due to the influence it may have on the economy in the coming months (consider China or the West after last winter's wave of Omicron). On that account, in this brief note, we describe our vision of the possible progression of the pandemic and its impact on the economy, especially in sectors such as tourism. We will seek to answer the following questions: