Our view on China is atypical and goes against the consensus established among analysts and economic observers. Specifically, the mainstream expects the Chinese economy to keep its current growth pace in the coming years. Here, we set out the main reasons why we disagree with the consensus. In the short term, the bursting of the real estate bubble in China will depress economic growth and will significantly deteriorate banks' balance sheets through lower asset values and higher credit losses. Structurally, the Chinese model based on high rates of investment financed with debt is unsustainable, which together with declining trends in demographics and productivity, implies lower potential growth going forward. The government's response has been more centralisation measures and strengthened economic nationalism that seeks to secure the supply of strategic goods. China will probably not surpass the US economy, but it will remain one of the main sources of global geopolitical risk.