Russia's capture of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, the latter of which fell this weekend, now gives Russia complete control over Luhansk, which is half of the Donbas region. This marked a significant victory for Moscow but may be mainly symbolic. In this brief note, we go over the latest events in the Ukrainian conflict from a geopolitical and military strategy perspective to determine whether they may alter central scenario about how and when the conflict may end.