The economic impact of ChatGPT and similar generative AI models is already widely-discussed. But what about the broader, geopolitical impacts of AI? In other words, how will systems like ChatGPT play out in the context of economics, national security, and politics combined, and over decades? Where do they fit into the larger technology competition between China and the United States? In this paper, Arcano seeks to take such a long view, highlighting the longer-term risks, opportunities and questions posed by AI like ChatGPT.