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The Impact of Higher Interest Rates on Corporate Margins and the Economy

35 mins.
04 OCTOBER, 2023
ANALYSTS:
Leopoldo Torralba
Ignacio de la Torre
CATEGORIES:
Macro Global US Europe AER Global
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The evolution of corporate margins is an important predictor of the future direction of the economy: for example, if rising interest rates significantly undermine corporate profitability, firms may be tempted to cut jobs, with a consequent negative impact on consumer spending. This note analyses the recent performance of aggregate corporate margins in the US and Europe, their main drivers (some of which are not well known), the impact of high interest rates now and in the future, the expected evolution of margins in the coming years and their implications for the global economy.

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