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Commodity Prices Skyrocket… Dangerous or Transitory?

40 mins.
04 JUNE, 2021
fondo_AER_macro
ANALYSTS:
Ignacio de la Torre
Leopoldo Torralba
Pedro Larrasquitu
CATEGORIES:
Macro Global Commodities AER Global AER Personal
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At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, commodities prices plunged as markets discounted a historical recession. Then, the positive evolution of the industrial sector during lockdowns and the rapid Chinese rebound pushed the prices of commodities including copper and lumber to all-time highs. Now, the question is whether these increases will be sustained over time, with the subsequent long-term adverse impacts on the economy, or whether it is just the result of transitory, pandemic-related events. In order to answer this question, we must first reflect on the following:
What has been the effect of freight costs on commodities? Is this a recurring factor?
What is the likely evolution of China moving forward?
Will the consumption of services rise to the detriment of goods?
What may be the impact of inflation expectations?

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