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Probability of Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

10 mins.
14 SEPTEMBER, 2022
Bjorn Beam
Dr. Milo Jones
Geopolitics Global US China AER Global
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China's military's live-fire exercise in August 2022 brought renewed attention to the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and the potential economic and geopolitical fallout that would ensue. Chinese President Xi Jinping is likely to balance his short- and medium-term domestic goals with his long-term geopolitical goals, which include Taiwanese unification. Xi plans to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin this week at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit set for the 15th and 16th of September in Uzbekistan. In the backdrop to this event, United States officials are considering options for a potential sanction package to deter an invasion of Taiwan. In this brief note, we analyze the warnings and indicators that could signal an impending Chinese invasion of Taiwan while examining China's geopolitical and military considerations.

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