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The Future of War in Ukraine: Three Scenarios, but One Rather More Likely

20 mins.
15 JUNE, 2022
análisis macroeconómico
ANALYSTS:
Leopoldo Torralba
Bjorn Beam
Eduardo Pascual
CATEGORIES:
Commodities Politics Rest of the World AER Global
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After almost four months of conflict in Ukraine, we have reassessed the war situation in a deep and qualified way. In this report we update and project the most likely future scenarios linked to the conflict in Ukraine, the associated risks, the more probable timetable for the end of the war and the impact it could have in economic terms, especially in terms of commodities.
What are the three possible scenarios and which is the most likely?
What is our Strategic military assessment?
How is war affecting food and raw materials supplies?

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