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Is the British Crisis a Cause for Concern?

10 mins.
29 SEPTEMBER, 2022
Leopoldo Torralba
Ignacio de la Torre
Macro Global Monetary Policy Real Estate Financial Markets Tourism sector Spain US Europe UK AER Global AER Personal
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The three worst-performing G20 currencies so far this year are the Argentinian peso, the Turkish lira, and the British pound. British thirty-year sovereign bonds fell by 24% at the start of the week, following the announcement by the new Chancellor Kwarteng of a tax cut not coupled with public spending restraint (actions described by a Conservative MP as "inept folly"). In turn, ten-year bonds also fell to the point where their interest rate rose to 5% (from 4% a few days ago and levels below 3% relatively recently) prompting an emergency intervention by the Bank of England yesterday, on a date that has begun to be referred to as "a new Black Wednesday". The underlying economic and fiscal situation is worrying. This brief report attempts to explain the fundamentals behind these violent movements in the UK (and not Italian post-election) asset prices.

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